Wargaming: The Echo Chamber Plight

How do you go about solving complex problems?

Perhaps you take time to reflect and talk it through with a confidant. Or maybe you go full steam ahead and see what happens.

But what about when the stakes are high? Like national security high.

Wargaming provides safe-to-fail environments to explore what works and what doesn’t at a relatively low cost. As the Red Teaming Handbook defines it, “Wargaming is a scenario-based warfare model in which the outcome and sequence of events affect, and are affected by, the decisions made by the players”.

Lessons from History

In 1905, Major General J. M. Grierson ran a five-month strategic wargame simulating war between Germany and France. The exercise revealed serious deficiencies in mobilising and transporting the British Army across the Channel. The findings were stark—France would be defeated before Britain could intervene.

This wargame significantly influenced British military strategy in the years that followed. It was, perhaps, the first example of a wargame shaping British history (Wargaming Handbook, 2017).

The Diversity Dilemma

Have you ever been in a room surrounded by decision-makers who all seem copied and pasted? Now, imagine these decision-makers directly impact national security and world peace. That’s our reality.

“Diversity in wargaming is an issue… if you have a bunch of people with the same kind of backgrounds you are going to get the same kind of answers. For any kind of research or innovation, which is really what wargaming is all about, you need those different perspectives,” says Iain McNeil, CEO of Slitherine Software (Diversity on the Battlefield, 2021).

Research in Action

Despite its importance, there is little formal research on diversity in wargaming. Tess Butler, Founder and CEO of Ruddy Nice & DSET, is changing that. As part of her PhD, she is leading a study commissioned by the Cabinet Office and the SONAC Team, analysing strategic decision-making and the potential impact of gender.

The research examines how gender and generational perspectives influence defence and wargaming environments. It includes immersive role-play scenarios developed by DSTL, conducted with both single-gender and mixed-gender groups. With 27 years of experience in military simulation, wargaming, and training, Tess aims to deliver actionable insights that will benefit defence strategy immediately and drive long-term change.

Key Takeaways from the Wargame

Participating in this study provided valuable insights. While specifics remain confidential, a few key observations stood out:

The Snowball Effect – Small actions can escalate into larger conflicts. In wargaming, reactions aren’t always equal; they can spiral unpredictably.
Communication is Everything – Wargaming removes real-world barriers like time delays and geography, but open communication remains critical to navigating crises effectively.
Expect the Unexpected – Never underestimate adversaries—or allies. Understanding the broader context helps anticipate hidden motives.
Challenging the Status Quo – Decision-makers often surround themselves with yes-people. Staying focused on the bigger picture is crucial to avoiding misdirected conflicts.
The Human Factor – How people communicate their strategies, balance personal agendas, and handle biases is just as important as the game itself

Looking Ahead

The research report, due in April 2025, will provide data-driven insights into gameplay strategy and the correlation between gender and wargaming success.

It is an honour to contribute to research that may highlight the importance of diverse perspectives in decision-making. Here’s to a future where heterogeneous thinking isn’t just an afterthought—but a necessity.

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